Northern Illinois

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Rob Harley (interim)

The costliest close calls

1. Week 2 vs ILST: 4th & 3 at the ILST 49, Q4 14:09, down 4. Northern Illinois punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
2. Week 4 vs GAST: 4th & 1 at their own 45, Q3 3:40, down 14. Northern Illinois punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
3. Week 8 vs HAW: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q2 9:56, down 7. Northern Illinois punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
4. Week 7 vs WYO: 4th & goal at the WYO 5, Q2 2:41, down 14. Northern Illinois kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
5. Week 3 vs ARIZ: 4th & 4 at the ARIZ 24, Q1 1:08, up 3. Northern Illinois kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.4% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards