Snap Theory

Notre Dame

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Marcus Freeman

11thof 136 FBS teams
52fourth downs graded
10differ from the model
0.72%win chance given up per game
37%go for it
40%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 10 vs MIA: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q3 3:30, up 7. Notre Dame punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 5 vs UNC: 4th & 13 at the UNC 37, Q4 0:07, up 11. Notre Dame went for it; the model’s call was to punt (1.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs MIA: 4th & 3 at the MIA 48, Q1 1:38, up 3. Notre Dame punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 10 vs MIA: 4th & 3 at the MIA 27, Q1 9:38, tied. Notre Dame kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
  5. Week 10 vs MIA: 4th & 3 at their own 45, Q2 3:43, up 7. Notre Dame punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.4% win chance given up).
Play Notre Dame’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards