Snap Theory

Ohio State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Ryan Day

3rdof 136 FBS teams
60fourth downs graded
12differ from the model
0.42%win chance given up per game
32%go for it
42%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 9 vs USC: 4th & 9 at the USC 42, Q1 4:08, down 4. Ohio State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs USC: 4th & 5 at the USC 6, Q2 1:46, down 11. Ohio State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.4% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs USC: 4th & 4 at the USC 22, Q1 8:27, down 7. Ohio State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 4 vs ILL: 4th & 7 at the ILL 31, Q2 7:54, up 7. Ohio State went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (0.1% win chance given up).
Play Ohio State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards