Snap Theory

Oklahoma State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Eric Morris

127thof 136 FBS teams
48fourth downs graded
15differ from the model
2.79%win chance given up per game
29%go for it
60%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 2 vs ORE: 4th & 1 at the ORE 14, Q4 3:11, up 5. Oklahoma State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (9.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 4 vs WVU: 4th & 1 at the WVU 2, Q2 7:56, down 11. Oklahoma State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (6.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs HOU: 4th & 5 at the HOU 6, Q1 8:39, tied. Oklahoma State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs ORE: 4th & 6 at the ORE 7, Q3 11:50, up 10. Oklahoma State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
  5. Week 2 vs ORE: 4th & 5 at the ORE 7, Q3 11:50, up 7. Oklahoma State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
Play Oklahoma State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards