Snap Theory

Ole Miss

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Pete Golding

38thof 136 FBS teams
52fourth downs graded
16differ from the model
1.12%win chance given up per game
21%go for it
50%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs FLA: 4th & 1 at their own 46, Q1 5:55, down 10. Ole Miss punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs TEX: 4th & 4 at their own 39, Q4 11:23, tied. Ole Miss punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs AUB: 4th & goal at the AUB 3, Q3 9:46, up 5. Ole Miss kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
  4. Week 3 vs LSU: 4th & 4 at the LSU 20, Q1 6:38, tied. Ole Miss kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
  5. Week 4 vs FLA: 4th & 4 at the FLA 29, Q2 1:11, down 14. Ole Miss kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
Play Ole Miss’ calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards