Snap Theory

Oregon State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: JaMarcus Shephard

31stof 136 FBS teams
55fourth downs graded
15differ from the model
1.06%win chance given up per game
36%go for it
56%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 9 vs FRES: 4th & 6 at the FRES 37, Q1 6:41, tied. Oregon State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs TTU: 4th & 4 at the TTU 17, Q4 13:23, tied. Oregon State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs TTU: 4th & 9 at the TTU 37, Q1 0:12, tied. Oregon State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs TTU: 4th & 10 at the TTU 41, Q1 11:19, tied. Oregon State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.2% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs HOU: 4th & 7 at the HOU 30, Q2 2:57, down 9. Oregon State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.1% win chance given up).
Play Oregon State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards