Snap Theory

Oregon

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Dan Lanning

61stof 136 FBS teams
66fourth downs graded
16differ from the model
1.48%win chance given up per game
24%go for it
42%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs NEB: 4th & 1 at their own 29, Q1 2:54, tied. Oregon punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs ILL: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q3 7:25, down 4. Oregon punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 8 vs ILL: 4th & 7 at the ILL 36, Q4 6:04, down 4. Oregon kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs ILL: 4th & 2 at the ILL 3, Q2 2:29, up 7. Oregon kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 2 vs OKST: 4th & 8 at their own 33, Q4 6:48, down 5. Oregon went for it; the model’s call was to punt (0.5% win chance given up).
Play Oregon’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards