Snap Theory

Penn State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Matt Campbell

57thof 136 FBS teams
65fourth downs graded
18differ from the model
1.45%win chance given up per game
25%go for it
40%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs MICH: 4th & 5 at the MICH 39, Q2 8:05, up 3. Penn State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
  2. Week 7 vs MICH: 4th & 3 at their own 48, Q4 9:20, down 3. Penn State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs PUR: 4th & 1 at their own 27, Q3 13:21, up 7. Penn State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  4. Week 5 vs NU: 4th & 2 at their own 44, Q1 2:00, down 10. Penn State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs NU: 4th & 5 at the NU 44, Q1 8:36, down 3. Penn State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
Play Penn State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards