Snap Theory

Pittsburgh

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Pat Narduzzi

32ndof 136 FBS teams
66fourth downs graded
14differ from the model
1.07%win chance given up per game
27%go for it
45%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 2 vs UCF: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q4 2:24, up 5. Pittsburgh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (5.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs UNC: 4th & 2 at their own 36, Q3 4:35, up 3. Pittsburgh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs UCF: 4th & 5 at the UCF 44, Q2 4:28, up 5. Pittsburgh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs UCF: 4th & 1 at their own 29, Q4 6:45, up 12. Pittsburgh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs UNC: 4th & 3 at their own 48, Q1 0:34, up 7. Pittsburgh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.2% win chance given up).
Play Pittsburgh’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards