Snap Theory

Purdue

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Barry Odom

117thof 136 FBS teams
60fourth downs graded
25differ from the model
2.48%win chance given up per game
27%go for it
65%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 10 vs MD: 4th & 4 at the MD 5, Q4 12:13, down 9. Purdue kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (7.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs PSU: 4th & 6 at the PSU 40, Q2 0:50, down 7. Purdue punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs WAKE: 4th & goal at the WAKE 3, Q4 0:03, down 3. Purdue kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs WAKE: 4th & 11 at the WAKE 39, Q4 13:28, down 7. Purdue punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
  5. Week 9 vs PSU: 4th & 4 at the PSU 45, Q1 11:19, tied. Purdue punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
Play Purdue’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards