Snap Theory

Rice

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Scott Abell

40thof 136 FBS teams
60fourth downs graded
24differ from the model
1.15%win chance given up per game
32%go for it
65%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs FAU: 4th & 5 at their own 36, Q4 6:28, down 2. Rice punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 5 vs UTSA: 4th & 4 at the UTSA 25, Q3 12:28, down 9. Rice kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  3. Week 3 vs WMU: 4th & 4 at their own 37, Q4 10:49, down 7. Rice punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 1 vs HCU: 4th & 6 at their own 48, Q1 11:11, tied. Rice went for it; the model’s call was to punt (0.2% win chance given up).
Play Rice’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards