Sacramento State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Alonzo Carter

The costliest close calls

1. Week 4 vs MASS: 4th & 2 at the MASS 3, Q2 14:48, down 7. Sacramento State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.5% win chance given up).
2. Week 8 vs BALL: 4th & 2 at their own 42, Q2 11:39, up 3. Sacramento State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
3. Week 9 vs KENT: 4th & 6 at the KENT 42, Q2 2:25, down 1. Sacramento State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
4. Week 10 vs TOL: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q4 14:54, down 7. Sacramento State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
5. Week 2 vs FRES: 4th & 1 at their own 40, Q1 7:36, tied. Sacramento State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards