Snap Theory

Sam Houston

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay / Eric Raisbeck (interim)

124thof 136 FBS teams
75fourth downs graded
36differ from the model
2.56%win chance given up per game
11%go for it
56%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs WKU: 4th & 2 at the WKU 43, Q2 1:42, down 7. Sam Houston punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.5% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs NMSU: 4th & 1 at their own 27, Q3 8:51, down 4. Sam Houston punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs TLSA: 4th & 1 at their own 21, Q1 1:34, up 7. Sam Houston punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs WKU: 4th & 10 at the WKU 39, Q3 6:05, down 7. Sam Houston punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 8 vs NMSU: 4th & 1 at their own 38, Q1 8:56, up 7. Sam Houston punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
Play Sam Houston’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards