San Diego State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Sean Lewis

The costliest close calls

1. Week 5 vs TXST: 4th & 3 at the TXST 42, Q4 1:26, up 2. San Diego State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.9% win chance given up).
2. Week 5 vs TXST: 4th & 2 at their own 36, Q3 1:21, down 6. San Diego State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
3. Week 3 vs JMU: 4th & 11 at the JMU 36, Q2 11:04, down 13. San Diego State punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (1.5% win chance given up).
4. Week 2 vs UCLA: 4th & 4 at the UCLA 29, Q4 13:11, down 7. San Diego State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
5. Week 4 vs TOL: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q1 5:30, down 4. San Diego State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards