Snap Theory

San José State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Ken Niumatalolo

113thof 136 FBS teams
84fourth downs graded
31differ from the model
2.42%win chance given up per game
15%go for it
52%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs EMU: 4th & 8 at the EMU 32, Q4 1:37, up 3. San José State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (6.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 5 vs HAW: 4th & 1 at their own 30, Q2 13:36, tied. San José State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.7% win chance given up).
  3. Week 3 vs FRES: 4th & 1 at the FRES 28, Q1 9:25, tied. San José State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs CP: 4th & 4 at the CP 23, Q4 11:59, tied. San José State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 8 vs NEV: 4th & 1 at their own 25, Q4 14:13, down 11. San José State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
Play San José State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards