Snap Theory

SMU

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Rhett Lashlee

1stof 136 FBS teams
49fourth downs graded
9differ from the model
0.27%win chance given up per game
33%go for it
51%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs CAL: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 13:44, tied. SMU punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 5 vs BC: 4th & 7 at the BC 40, Q2 5:16, up 3. SMU punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
  3. Week 1 vs FSU: 4th & goal at the FSU 5, Q2 1:49, up 4. SMU kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs UVA: 4th & 9 at the UVA 41, Q3 8:46, up 3. SMU punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.1% win chance given up).
Play SMU’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards