Snap Theory

South Florida

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Brian Hartline

121stof 136 FBS teams
56fourth downs graded
12differ from the model
2.53%win chance given up per game
18%go for it
32%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 2 vs ARMY: 4th & 6 at the ARMY 38, Q4 0:23, down 3. South Florida went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (8.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs ECU: 4th & 3 at their own 40, Q4 1:42, tied. South Florida punted; the model’s call was to go for it (6.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 4 vs BGSU: 4th & 1 at their own 18, Q3 1:20, down 6. South Florida punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs ARMY: 4th & 3 at their own 45, Q4 10:56, down 3. South Florida punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 10 vs ECU: 4th & 3 at the ECU 29, Q3 10:24, tied. South Florida went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (0.9% win chance given up).
Play South Florida’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards