Snap Theory

Southern Miss

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Blake Anderson

110thof 136 FBS teams
73fourth downs graded
27differ from the model
2.39%win chance given up per game
34%go for it
70%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs TULN: 4th & 3 at the TULN 4, Q4 1:45, down 3. Southern Miss kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (11.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs UL: 4th & 6 at the UL 24, Q3 5:39, tied. Southern Miss kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs ARST: 4th & 5 at midfield, Q3 8:57, down 9. Southern Miss punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
  4. Week 4 vs TULN: 4th & 5 at the TULN 27, Q4 5:44, up 4. Southern Miss kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 9 vs ULM: 4th & 5 at the ULM 45, Q3 7:09, up 10. Southern Miss punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.4% win chance given up).
Play Southern Miss’ calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards