Snap Theory

Stanford

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Tavita Pritchard

69thof 136 FBS teams
76fourth downs graded
32differ from the model
1.57%win chance given up per game
30%go for it
58%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs GT: 4th & 10 at the GT 33, Q3 0:04, tied. Stanford went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (3.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs NCSU: 4th & 20 at the NCSU 34, Q2 14:01, up 7. Stanford went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (3.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 4 vs GT: 4th & goal at the GT 7, Q3 10:32, down 10. Stanford kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 5 vs WAKE: 4th & 3 at the WAKE 29, Q1 12:05, tied. Stanford kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 3 vs DUKE: 4th & 10 at the DUKE 44, Q1 0:43, tied. Stanford punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
Play Stanford’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards