Snap Theory

TCU

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Sonny Dykes

73rdof 136 FBS teams
63fourth downs graded
14differ from the model
1.62%win chance given up per game
24%go for it
35%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs BAY: 4th & 1 at the BAY 45, Q2 12:54, up 7. TCU punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 5 vs BYU: 4th & 8 at the BYU 45, Q4 13:36, down 3. TCU punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs BYU: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q3 5:29, down 3. TCU punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 1 vs UNC: 4th & 10 at the UNC 35, Q2 13:16, tied. TCU went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (0.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 8 vs WVU: 4th & 5 at the WVU 20, Q3 10:54, tied. TCU kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.5% win chance given up).
Play TCU’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards