Snap Theory

Tennessee

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Josh Heupel

15thof 136 FBS teams
62fourth downs graded
13differ from the model
0.83%win chance given up per game
24%go for it
42%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs ALA: 4th & 1 at their own 49, Q3 0:06, up 9. Tennessee punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs SC: 4th & 6 at the SC 45, Q3 4:14, up 4. Tennessee punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs UK: 4th & 3 at their own 42, Q1 3:41, tied. Tennessee punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 4 vs TEX: 4th & 7 at the TEX 34, Q2 1:54, down 7. Tennessee went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (0.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs ARK: 4th & 3 at the ARK 34, Q1 8:47, tied. Tennessee kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.5% win chance given up).
Play Tennessee’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards