Snap Theory

Texas State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: G. J. Kinne

56thof 136 FBS teams
49fourth downs graded
20differ from the model
1.39%win chance given up per game
33%go for it
61%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 10 vs ORST: 4th & 3 at the ORST 11, Q2 12:25, up 7. Texas State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.9% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs USU: 4th & 1 at their own 15, Q1 1:12, up 1. Texas State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 7 vs CSU: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 13:34, tied. Texas State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 5 vs SDSU: 4th & 9 at the SDSU 28, Q4 12:13, down 7. Texas State kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs SDSU: 4th & 6 at their own 24, Q3 6:49, tied. Texas State went for it; the model’s call was to punt (0.7% win chance given up).
Play Texas State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards