Snap Theory

Texas Tech

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Joey McGuire

17thof 136 FBS teams
65fourth downs graded
14differ from the model
0.87%win chance given up per game
25%go for it
37%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 9 vs ARIZ: 4th & 3 at the ARIZ 12, Q2 0:24, down 10. Texas Tech kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs CIN: 4th & 5 at the CIN 21, Q3 5:07, down 9. Texas Tech kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs ARIZ: 4th & 7 at the ARIZ 25, Q4 14:43, up 1. Texas Tech kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs CIN: 4th & 6 at the CIN 31, Q1 0:58, tied. Texas Tech kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs COLO: 4th & 2 at the COLO 29, Q4 13:42, up 5. Texas Tech kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
Play Texas Tech’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards