Snap Theory

Texas

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Steve Sarkisian

27thof 136 FBS teams
66fourth downs graded
17differ from the model
1.03%win chance given up per game
20%go for it
35%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs OU: 4th & 2 at the OU 36, Q4 1:54, tied. Texas kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs OU: 4th & 1 at their own 18, Q3 3:48, up 7. Texas punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
  3. Week 10 vs MIZ: 4th & 9 at the MIZ 43, Q4 9:42, tied. Texas punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs OU: 4th & 3 at midfield, Q1 11:52, tied. Texas punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
  5. Week 10 vs MIZ: 4th & 1 at the MIZ 10, Q2 1:57, down 3. Texas kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
Play Texas’ calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards