Snap Theory

Toledo

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Mike Jacobs

77thof 136 FBS teams
60fourth downs graded
18differ from the model
1.69%win chance given up per game
27%go for it
50%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs MSU: 4th & 1 at their own 17, Q3 2:06, down 5. Toledo punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 5 vs BALL: 4th & 1 at the BALL 47, Q2 8:07, down 4. Toledo punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.5% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs BUFF: 4th & 1 at their own 36, Q2 14:02, down 6. Toledo punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs BUFF: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 1:15, down 6. Toledo punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  5. Week 10 vs SAC: 4th & 1 at their own 36, Q4 12:52, up 7. Toledo punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
Play Toledo’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards