Snap Theory

Troy

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Gerad Parker

35thof 136 FBS teams
73fourth downs graded
22differ from the model
1.10%win chance given up per game
26%go for it
51%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs ULM: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q4 11:49, up 4. Troy punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.6% win chance given up).
  2. Week 3 vs MIZ: 4th & 2 at their own 31, Q4 10:39, down 7. Troy punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
  3. Week 4 vs USU: 4th & 6 at the USU 28, Q2 10:24, tied. Troy kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs ULM: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q2 12:10, up 4. Troy punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
  5. Week 9 vs JMU: 4th & 4 at the JMU 32, Q4 3:21, tied. Troy kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.7% win chance given up).
Play Troy’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards