Snap Theory

Tulsa

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Tre Lamb

78thof 136 FBS teams
70fourth downs graded
19differ from the model
1.69%win chance given up per game
34%go for it
53%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs OKST: 4th & 1 at their own 37, Q2 8:47, up 3. Tulsa punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs SHSU: 4th & 17 at the SHSU 33, Q4 8:03, up 6. Tulsa went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (3.1% win chance given up).
  3. Week 1 vs OKST: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 12:59, tied. Tulsa punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).
  4. Week 2 vs SHSU: 4th & 10 at their own 44, Q3 10:10, down 4. Tulsa went for it; the model’s call was to punt (1.5% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs OKST: 4th & 6 at the OKST 23, Q1 2:18, tied. Tulsa kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
Play Tulsa’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards