Snap Theory

UAB

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Alex Mortensen

112thof 136 FBS teams
66fourth downs graded
21differ from the model
2.42%win chance given up per game
18%go for it
50%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 2 vs ULM: 4th & 6 at the ULM 25, Q4 1:10, up 3. UAB kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (5.5% win chance given up).
  2. Week 4 vs NAVY: 4th & 2 at the NAVY 30, Q4 0:42, up 4. UAB kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.5% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs MEM: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q3 7:38, down 4. UAB punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 7 vs ECU: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 8:34, down 7. UAB punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 9 vs USF: 4th & 1 at the USF 24, Q2 12:14, up 10. UAB kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
Play UAB’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards