Snap Theory

UCF

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Scott Frost

100thof 136 FBS teams
65fourth downs graded
20differ from the model
2.08%win chance given up per game
25%go for it
55%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs TCU: 4th & 1 at their own 19, Q1 1:08, tied. UCF punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 4 vs TCU: 4th & 1 at their own 41, Q4 5:30, up 8. UCF punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs HOU: 4th & 3 at their own 32, Q4 8:13, down 4. UCF punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs BYU: 4th & 2 at the BYU 3, Q2 8:10, tied. UCF kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 2 vs PITT: 4th & 2 at their own 41, Q1 7:07, tied. UCF punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
Play UCF’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards