Snap Theory

UNLV

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Dan Mullen

87thof 136 FBS teams
65fourth downs graded
19differ from the model
1.80%win chance given up per game
25%go for it
42%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs MEM: 4th & 16 at the MEM 33, Q3 6:07, tied. UNLV went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (4.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 1 vs MEM: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q4 14:51, down 3. UNLV punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs NDSU: 4th & 10 at the NDSU 39, Q3 0:50, up 3. UNLV punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  4. Week 1 vs MEM: 4th & 2 at the MEM 46, Q1 8:32, tied. UNLV punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs NDSU: 4th & 11 at the NDSU 42, Q2 1:18, tied. UNLV punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
Play UNLV’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards