Snap Theory

USC

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Lincoln Riley

33rdof 136 FBS teams
42fourth downs graded
9differ from the model
1.07%win chance given up per game
31%go for it
43%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 4 vs ORE: 4th & 3 at the ORE 12, Q3 1:32, down 10. USC kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.3% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs WIS: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 13:44, tied. USC punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs OSU: 4th & 6 at the OSU 37, Q2 10:21, up 8. USC kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
  4. Week 4 vs ORE: 4th & 6 at the ORE 21, Q2 5:32, down 3. USC kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs PSU: 4th & 10 at the PSU 39, Q2 7:42, tied. USC kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
Play USC’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards