Snap Theory

Utah State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Bronco Mendenhall

133rdof 136 FBS teams
60fourth downs graded
27differ from the model
3.62%win chance given up per game
18%go for it
62%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs WSU: 4th & 1 at their own 47, Q4 2:40, up 1. Utah State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (9.2% win chance given up).
  2. Week 10 vs FRES: 4th & 1 at the FRES 42, Q1 9:37, tied. Utah State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 4 vs TROY: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q2 5:42, down 3. Utah State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs TXST: 4th & 1 at their own 21, Q3 2:51, down 5. Utah State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs WSU: 4th & 1 at their own 22, Q2 10:23, down 6. Utah State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
Play Utah State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards