Snap Theory

UTSA

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Jeff Traylor

24thof 136 FBS teams
66fourth downs graded
23differ from the model
1.01%win chance given up per game
21%go for it
47%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 6 vs USF: 4th & 2 at the USF 24, Q3 2:04, tied. UTSA kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.3% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs TXST: 4th & 12 at the TXST 28, Q2 2:14, down 7. UTSA went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (1.0% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs RICE: 4th & 2 at the RICE 15, Q1 12:52, tied. UTSA kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 5 vs RICE: 4th & 4 at the RICE 5, Q2 5:49, up 6. UTSA kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 5 vs RICE: 4th & 6 at the RICE 36, Q1 8:41, up 3. UTSA kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.4% win chance given up).
Play UTSA’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards