Snap Theory

Virginia

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Tony Elliott

39thof 136 FBS teams
73fourth downs graded
15differ from the model
1.13%win chance given up per game
37%go for it
47%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 3 vs WVU: 4th & 10 at the WVU 34, Q3 9:06, down 7. Virginia went for it; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (2.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs DUKE: 4th & goal at the DUKE 4, Q2 9:06, tied. Virginia kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  3. Week 8 vs DUKE: 4th & 5 at the DUKE 44, Q2 3:41, up 3. Virginia punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 3 vs WVU: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q2 10:18, tied. Virginia punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
Play Virginia’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards