Snap Theory

Washington State

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Kirby Moore

94thof 136 FBS teams
68fourth downs graded
23differ from the model
1.96%win chance given up per game
19%go for it
50%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 5 vs FRES: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q2 4:04, down 3. Washington State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 4 vs ARIZ: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q2 14:02, up 7. Washington State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.8% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs FRES: 4th & 1 at their own 21, Q2 14:11, down 3. Washington State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs BOIS: 4th & 1 at their own 19, Q2 8:17, down 7. Washington State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.4% win chance given up).
  5. Week 6 vs USU: 4th & 9 at the USU 38, Q4 13:19, up 6. Washington State punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.1% win chance given up).
Play Washington State’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards