Snap Theory

Western Kentucky

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Tyson Helton

74thof 136 FBS teams
71fourth downs graded
31differ from the model
1.64%win chance given up per game
23%go for it
65%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs SHSU: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q2 4:50, up 7. Western Kentucky punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs MOST: 4th & 1 at the MOST 17, Q3 2:05, up 8. Western Kentucky kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.6% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs DEL: 4th & 4 at the DEL 25, Q3 7:09, down 7. Western Kentucky kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.5% win chance given up).
  4. Week 1 vs NEV: 4th & 6 at the NEV 42, Q2 3:28, down 7. Western Kentucky punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs NEV: 4th & 2 at their own 33, Q3 13:16, down 14. Western Kentucky punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
Play Western Kentucky’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards