Western Michigan

FBS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10 · head coach now: Lance Taylor

The costliest close calls

1. Week 1 vs MICH: 4th & 4 at the MICH 16, Q4 0:35, up 2. Western Michigan kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.5% win chance given up).
2. Week 8 vs TOL: 4th & goal at the TOL 6, Q4 9:19, down 3. Western Michigan kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
3. Week 8 vs TOL: 4th & 10 at their own 25, Q4 3:35, down 7. Western Michigan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
4. Week 1 vs MICH: 4th & 3 at the MICH 40, Q2 0:56, down 4. Western Michigan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
5. Week 3 vs RICE: 4th & 1 at their own 34, Q1 13:04, tied. Western Michigan punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards