Snap Theory

Aaron Glenn

NYJ · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

14thof 32 NFL coaches
66fourth downs graded
13differ from the model
1.68%win chance given up per game
17%go for it
35%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 8 vs LV: 4th & goal at the LV 3, Q1 12:53, tied. Glenn kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs LV: 4th & 2 at the LV 17, Q1 2:17, down 4. Glenn kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs CLE: 4th & 1 at their own 40, Q4 10:45, up 4. Glenn punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs LV: 4th & 3 at their own 42, Q3 1:40, up 2. Glenn punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 9 vs KC: 4th & goal at the KC 5, Q1 6:50, tied. Glenn kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
Play Aaron Glenn’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards