Andy Reid

KC · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

The costliest close calls

1. Week 8 vs DEN: 4th & 8 at the DEN 36, Q4 2:36, up 3. Reid kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to punt (1.9% win chance given up).
2. Week 4 vs LV: 4th & 3 at the LV 45, Q2 11:28, tied. Reid punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
3. Week 4 vs LV: 4th & 9 at their own 30, Q1 13:21, tied. Reid went for it; the model’s call was to punt (1.5% win chance given up).
4. Week 9 vs NYJ: 4th & 2 at their own 39, Q2 6:42, down 2. Reid punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
5. Week 7 vs SEA: 4th & 4 at the SEA 42, Q1 1:54, tied. Reid punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards