Snap Theory

Ben Johnson

CHI · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

18thof 32 NFL coaches
60fourth downs graded
14differ from the model
1.98%win chance given up per game
27%go for it
50%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 2 vs MIN: 4th & goal at the MIN 5, Q4 6:26, down 3. Johnson kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (5.0% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs SEA: 4th & 2 at their own 25, Q3 13:41, up 4. Johnson punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.9% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs ATL: 4th & 1 at their own 40, Q2 1:52, up 7. Johnson punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 8 vs SEA: 4th & 2 at the SEA 20, Q2 1:12, up 7. Johnson kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs CAR: 4th & 4 at the CAR 22, Q2 5:24, tied. Johnson kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
Play Ben Johnson’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards