Snap Theory

Brian Schottenheimer

DAL · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

11thof 32 NFL coaches
55fourth downs graded
13differ from the model
1.50%win chance given up per game
24%go for it
47%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 9 vs IND: 4th & 1 at their own 39, Q4 7:50, up 3. Schottenheimer punted; the model’s call was to go for it (5.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 3 vs BAL: 4th & 6 at the BAL 41, Q3 6:07, down 4. Schottenheimer kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.7% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs WAS: 4th & 5 at the WAS 6, Q1 5:04, up 7. Schottenheimer kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs GB: 4th & 7 at their own 46, Q3 3:35, down 13. Schottenheimer punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.9% win chance given up).
  5. Week 4 vs HOU: 4th & 5 at the HOU 21, Q1 5:13, down 7. Schottenheimer kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
Play Brian Schottenheimer’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards