Snap Theory

Dan Campbell

DET · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

29thof 32 NFL coaches
54fourth downs graded
12differ from the model
2.62%win chance given up per game
30%go for it
44%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 1 vs NO: 4th & 1 at their own 44, Q4 0:37, tied. Campbell punted; the model’s call was to go for it (7.9% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs MIN: 4th & 5 at the MIN 7, Q1 2:21, tied. Campbell kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.5% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs MIA: 4th & 7 at their own 30, Q2 14:55, tied. Campbell went for it; the model’s call was to punt (1.3% win chance given up).
  4. Week 1 vs NO: 4th & 3 at their own 45, Q4 13:12, up 7. Campbell punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
Play Dan Campbell’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards