Snap Theory

Dan Quinn

WAS · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

28thof 32 NFL coaches
69fourth downs graded
17differ from the model
2.54%win chance given up per game
17%go for it
42%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 9 vs LA: 4th & 1 at their own 29, Q3 9:34, down 3. Quinn punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.7% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs PHI: 4th & 1 at their own 19, Q2 1:38, tied. Quinn punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.6% win chance given up).
  3. Week 2 vs DAL: 4th & 5 at the DAL 9, Q2 13:22, down 10. Quinn kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 4 vs IND: 4th & 2 at the IND 13, Q1 13:01, tied. Quinn kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
  5. Week 1 vs PHI: 4th & 1 at their own 31, Q1 2:49, up 3. Quinn punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
Play Dan Quinn’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards