Snap Theory

Dave Canales

CAR · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

2ndof 32 NFL coaches
57fourth downs graded
5differ from the model
0.80%win chance given up per game
28%go for it
37%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 3 vs CLE: 4th & 2 at the CLE 22, Q3 13:26, down 7. Canales kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 6 vs PHI: 4th & 1 at their own 42, Q1 1:48, up 3. Canales punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.0% win chance given up).
  3. Week 3 vs CLE: 4th & 2 at their own 44, Q1 6:00, tied. Canales punted; the model’s call was to go for it (0.8% win chance given up).
Play Dave Canales’ calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards