Snap Theory

DeMeco Ryans

HOU · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

31stof 32 NFL coaches
55fourth downs graded
16differ from the model
3.65%win chance given up per game
11%go for it
40%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs NYG: 4th & 1 at their own 23, Q3 8:12, tied. Ryans punted; the model’s call was to go for it (4.8% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs CIN: 4th & 1 at the CIN 40, Q3 7:33, down 7. Ryans kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (4.7% win chance given up).
  3. Week 6 vs JAX: 4th & 1 at the JAX 7, Q2 4:18, tied. Ryans kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (3.1% win chance given up).
  4. Week 6 vs JAX: 4th & 1 at their own 44, Q3 13:06, up 3. Ryans punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.0% win chance given up).
  5. Week 3 vs IND: 4th & 4 at the IND 6, Q4 7:36, down 9. Ryans kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.2% win chance given up).
Play DeMeco Ryans’ calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards