Snap Theory

Jeff Hafley

MIA · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

1stof 32 NFL coaches
50fourth downs graded
12differ from the model
0.78%win chance given up per game
18%go for it
28%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 7 vs NYJ: 4th & 2 at their own 23, Q2 11:17, up 7. Hafley punted; the model’s call was to go for it (2.1% win chance given up).
  2. Week 9 vs DET: 4th & 6 at the DET 34, Q3 4:06, down 6. Hafley kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.3% win chance given up).
  3. Week 5 vs CIN: 4th & 4 at the CIN 12, Q1 9:48, down 7. Hafley kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
Play Jeff Hafley’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards