Jesse Minter

BAL · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

The costliest close calls

1. Week 2 vs NO: 4th & 1 at their own 37, Q4 8:14, tied. Minter punted; the model’s call was to go for it (5.6% win chance given up).
2. Week 8 vs BUF: 4th & 4 at the BUF 8, Q3 11:31, down 9. Minter kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (4.9% win chance given up).
3. Week 3 vs DAL: 4th & 5 at their own 45, Q4 7:40, down 4. Minter punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.5% win chance given up).
4. Week 5 vs ATL: 4th & goal at the ATL 3, Q1 10:30, tied. Minter kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
5. Week 5 vs ATL: 4th & 4 at their own 38, Q4 6:30, down 5. Minter punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.7% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards