Snap Theory

Jim Harbaugh

LAC · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

27thof 32 NFL coaches
56fourth downs graded
17differ from the model
2.45%win chance given up per game
16%go for it
43%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 3 vs BUF: 4th & goal at the BUF 3, Q3 6:15, tied. Harbaugh kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (4.6% win chance given up).
  2. Week 2 vs LV: 4th & 2 at their own 28, Q4 8:26, down 3. Harbaugh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (3.8% win chance given up).
  3. Week 8 vs LA: 4th & 2 at the LA 16, Q1 0:08, down 3. Harbaugh kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.9% win chance given up).
  4. Week 3 vs BUF: 4th & 3 at the BUF 13, Q1 0:37, up 7. Harbaugh kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.6% win chance given up).
  5. Week 3 vs BUF: 4th & 3 at the BUF 27, Q2 10:26, up 10. Harbaugh kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.2% win chance given up).
Play Jim Harbaugh’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards