Snap Theory

Joe Brady

BUF · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

12thof 32 NFL coaches
48fourth downs graded
11differ from the model
1.51%win chance given up per game
25%go for it
46%model says go

The costliest close calls

  1. Week 5 vs LA: 4th & 3 at the LA 5, Q1 0:13, up 3. Brady kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (4.4% win chance given up).
  2. Week 8 vs BAL: 4th & goal at the BAL 4, Q2 9:53, up 3. Brady kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (2.4% win chance given up).
  3. Week 9 vs MIN: 4th & 4 at the MIN 21, Q1 2:00, tied. Brady kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.6% win chance given up).
  4. Week 1 vs HOU: 4th & 4 at the HOU 14, Q4 10:36, down 1. Brady kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.3% win chance given up).
  5. Week 8 vs BAL: 4th & 7 at the BAL 38, Q1 6:10, up 7. Brady kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (0.2% win chance given up).
Play Joe Brady’s calls

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards