John Harbaugh

NYG · 2026 fourth downs through week 10

The costliest close calls

1. Week 7 vs HOU: 4th & 13 at the HOU 37, Q3 10:13, tied. Harbaugh punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (2.9% win chance given up).
2. Week 10 vs WAS: 4th & 3 at the WAS 46, Q4 14:15, down 3. Harbaugh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
3. Week 9 vs PHI: 4th & 1 at their own 29, Q1 0:42, down 2. Harbaugh punted; the model’s call was to go for it (1.8% win chance given up).
4. Week 5 vs WAS: 4th & 2 at the WAS 37, Q3 10:58, down 9. Harbaugh kicked a field goal; the model’s call was to go for it (1.0% win chance given up).
5. Week 3 vs TEN: 4th & 21 at the TEN 38, Q1 12:22, tied. Harbaugh punted; the model’s call was to kick a field goal (0.7% win chance given up).

Every 2026 fourth down before the last 5 minutes is graded: the win chance of going for it, punting and kicking, from historical rates. All report cards